I reckon Julia Gillard will lose the next election, or possibly even be replaced by someone from the right like Bill Shorten before then. I know that the second suggestion sounds implausible, but I think her leadership is terminal. The reasons for this are partly her own fault, but partly not.
I was discussing Gillard with a group of colleagues not long after she became PM, and specifically how awkward and contrived she seemed. It was before the whole 'real Julia' fiasco. A colleague who knew her during her university days said that her image wasn't contrived, this was actually how she was. She is naturally not a particularly charismatic person. The more I have watched her since, the more I believe this is actually the case. Not only does she appear uncharismatic, I think she even comes across as quite shy and uncomfortable in the spotlight. She has learned to force herself to engage with people when she's out and about, but always looks ill at ease doing so.
This is not a fatal flaw necessarily - many people are like that, but learn to push through it in their professional life. But it is highly unusual for someone to rise to high office with such a lack of charisma.
Previous Prime Ministers have not all been hugely charismatic. Hawke was, Keating was in a pompous sort of way. Howard wasn't, but was comfortable meeting and greeting and speaking to large crowds. Rudd was larger than life in a nerdy kind of way.
I've long believed that political commentators usually underestimate these factors. The public are more superficial than the experts take them for, and often form their view on things like appearance and tone of voice. The latter is certainly not a plus for the PM. The way someone presents on TV is hugely important - even more so than their competence - in terms of elector-ability. That's why I reckon someone like Wayne Swan will never be PM - too easy to mock.
Gillard has other factors working against her. She has not made a single strong decision since being elected, and despite being from the left, seems totally beholden to the right wing powerbrokers who put her there, when it comes to policy. Her cowardly capitulation in selling out Julian Assange's rights under pressure from the US, was the final straw as far as I'm concerned. She is giving all the signs of being a weak leader who stands for nothing but power.
People who know her say this is not the case, and that she is a quietly determined person of great integrity. Sadly I don't see it, and I don't think the public do either.
I think the polling will bare this out in the coming year, and late this year or early next, the powers that be will face a choice similar to that which they faced a few months out from the last election. They will know that knifing another leader will not go down well - it will be seen as ruthless and give the impression of a party run on mutiny and chaos. But the other alternative will be to go to the polls with a leader who is miles behind.
And there is no shortage of ambitious people who would have a dip. King Billy will be doing his best to increase his profile over the next year. He is definitely charismatic, albeit in a slightly sleazy way. I could be wrong. I hope I am, as the prospect of Abbott as PM fills me with horror. But I reckon the writing is on the wall.
